What Happened? January 15-21
There is a sense of restlessness in the world, with tensions multiplying and conflicts flaring up. This newsletter will be quite long, so thank you for reading until the end.
“Shell hunger” in Ukraine
Ukraine’s President Zelensky attended the World Economic Forum in Davos in person for the first time since the war in Ukraine started. Zelensky asked Switzerland to host a global peace summit on Ukraine and involve China as a way to isolate Russia as the aggressor. China decided to stick with Russia, and Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang ignored Ukraine’s delegation in Switzerland. Ukraine rebuked the story, stating that it had never sent an invitation, while other officials confirmed for Politico that Chinese officials ignored Ukraine’s invitation. Zelensky’s cries for help were heard in Davos by EU Commission President von der Leyen, who stated “we must continue to empower their resistance” and framed the accession negotiations as for Ukraine’s membership as “Europe responding the call of history.”
Meanwhile, Russia targeted Ukraine’s military infrastructure in the early days of the week, and launched 33 Russian drones in southern and northern Ukraine Wednesday night, while also making small advancements and capturing a village in Donetsk. Thursday night, Ukraine retaliated with drone strikes on Russian territory, including near Saint Petersburg where an oil depot was set on fire. One of the Ukrainian drones also flew over Putin’s Valdai palace.
American support for Ukraine is still pending and putting at risk Ukraine’s capacity to hold the front lines. Biden invited Congressional leaders to the White House on Wednesday to discuss the importance of funding Ukraine (along with other allies). With Biden’s $60 billion aid request for Ukraine still blocked by Congress radicals who want tougher immigration measures, France announced more military deliveries for Ukraine and a ramp up of is manufacturing capacity, at a time when Russians are firing more artillery and Ukrainian forces are having a problem with shortage ammunition. But Russia is trying to diminish French support and summoned the French ambassador at the foreign affairs ministry in Moscow over allegations that French mercenaries are fighting in Ukraine.
Peace plans for Gaza
In true terrorist fashion, Hamas released last week a video footage of three hostages and revealed by Monday morning that two of the hostages were dead, blaming their deaths on Israeli bombings. The situation in the West Bank is also on the verge, after IDF arrested 9 students suspected of being members of a Hamas cell and conducted strikes in a refugee camp in Tul Karm causing civilian deaths. On the ground, Israel continued to pound Hamas targets in north, central and south Gaza through the week. In spite of Monday’s promises that the “intensive” phase of the war in southern Gaza will end soon, Israel started moving tanks back into northern Gaza. IDF declared that Hamas was dismantled, but recent reports show that Hamas is restoring militant units in the north.
Amid intense fighting, various officials started to discuss plans for a future post-war Gaza. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan laid out a plan for post-war Gaza that would start with the Israel-Saudi Arabia normalization. Sullivan said that a future Palestinian state would also have to be counterbalanced with security assurances for Israel. US Secretary of State Blinken also explained America’s strategy for the region in his Davos remarks: integration (Saudi-Israeli relations normalization) and a Palestinian state with a reformed Palestinian Authority at the helm. While it is hard to grasp why there is so much focus on the normalization of ties between the Saudis and Israel, Blinken let is slip that the US believes this will help isolate Iran and its proxies, such as Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, hence possibly providing security assurances for Israel. Echoing Sullivan’s ideas, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that, while the fight against Hamas will continue until the remaining 132 hostages are released, Israel is considering a post-war Gaza governed by civilians that “are non-hostile to the State of Israel.” Israeli President Isaac Herzog delivered a similar address in Davos, stating that Israeli-Saudi normalization is the first step in the peace process in Gaza and calling Iran “empire of evil” for enlisting its proxies to endanger the peace process in the Middle East. Herzog envisions a coalition of nations that would guarantee Israel’s security and a “different future to Gaza”. But a deal is unlikely, as Netanyahu rejected the establishment of a Palestinian state and stated that the war in Gaza will continue until “absolute victory.” US President Biden is still trying to get Netanyahu to accept a Palestinian state, the two having had a phone conversation to discuss the attributes of such a state. This was the first call between the two leaders in almost a month, after Biden reportedly ended his last call with Netanyahu by brutally hanging up the phone, Axios reported. A group of American officials are proposing the idea of a demilitarized Palestine, but the US President, showing his frustration, said he will offer more details “when I get him [Netanyahu] to agree.”
China is also starting to take a stance on Gaza. Last week, Chinese shipping company COSCO announced a halt in all ships bound for Israel; it was not clear whether the move has to do with the Houthi attacks or if it is politically tied to the Global South’s pro-Palestinian attitude (scroll down for a related story from the NAM). This Monday, while in Egypt, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for a more “authoritative” peace conference on Gaza. Wang’s four-point plan envisioned a ceasefire, urgent humanitarian aid to Gaza, Gaza’s future to be decided by Palestinians, and the two-state solution.
Foreign Policy is warning that the war in Gaza may be a proxy between the Gulf states, in which Qatar is poised to get more influence against Saudi Arabia. Against all rivalries, Arab states are working together on a peace plan in Gaza, FT reported. The plan would involve Saudi Arabia formalizing ties with Israel and “irreversible” steps toward the implementation of the two-state solution; Arab states are now in talks with US and European officials to finetune the details. The fact that there is a common thread on all these plans and declarations definitely gives it weight.
Hezbollah has rejected the US idea to withdraw its troops from the border, but is still open to US diplomacy. Fears of a new war flaring up between Hezbollah and Israel are real. Israel’s Saturday’s strike in Syria, that killed four members of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards, is likely going to heat up Iran’s actions in the weeks to come.
Houthis
Despite preemptive strikes from the US-led coalition, the Houthis continued to disrupt navigation in the Red Sea. QatarEnergy and Shell halted shipments via the Red Sea until further notice. Mohammed Abdulsalam, Houthi’s chief negotiator said that the attacks on Israeli and now US ships and on any vessels heading to Palestinian ports will continue until more aid is delivered to Gaza (though their attacks are making aid deliveries more difficult) and the war in Gaza stops. The US added the Houthis back on the specially designated global terrorist organizations list (they were whitelisted from the list in 2021 so that humanitarian aid could be delivered to Yemen) and launched a more strikes against Houthis this week. Chatham House considers that the Houthis are using the attacks as a way to improve their negotiation positions with the Saudis in the context of the war in Yemen, but they are also propping China’s ceasefire policy in Gaza and fueling anti-American sentiment in the region. US President Biden said the strikes against the Houthis will last until they stop disrupting navigation in the Red Sea, but admitted that these “defensive” actions have not been very convincing. According to Reuters, despite repeatedly denying any involvement, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah are actually directing the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
Iran attacked three countries this week
Iran has conducted an airstrike in Iraqi Kurdistan and Syria, claiming that it was targeting an Israeli spy center and that it acted in accordance to security cooperation treaties established with Iraq. Not coincidentally, the attack in Iraq was rather close to the US consulate in Erbil. Iraq has recalled its ambassador from Tehran to hand him a note of protest. While in Davos on Wednesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister declared that the attacks on Israel from the “Axis of Resistance” will stop once the war in Gaza ends.
Unrelated to the Middle East crisis, Iran extended the attacks to Pakistan on Tuesday, attacking the bases of the militant group Jaish al-Adl, in what Tehran claimed to be a retaliation to the terrorist attack that killed 84 people in Iran at the beginning of the year. Pakistan retaliated Thursday by launching strikes against “terrorist hideouts” in Iran's southeastern Sistan-Baluchistan regions. US President weighed in on the matter and, ignoring the rise of Anti-American sentiment in the region, framed the recent tensions as “Iran is not particularly well-liked in the region”.
Relations between Iran and Pakistan are rather friendly so the conflict is unlikely to further escalate. Both countries are fighting separatists, like Jaish al-Adl, in Iran’s Sistan and Pakistan’s Baluchistan regions. Despite accusations of fostering militants on each side of the border, Iran’s strife with the Gulf powers and Pakistan’s focus on the borders with India and Afghanistan keep them busy enough. Not to mention that Pakistan is a nuclear power, and Iran is on the path of becoming one, especially after it picked up its uranium enrichment program in 2023. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is concerned that Iran has enough uranium for several nuclear warheads, despite diplomatic declarations that Tehran is willing to reopen negotiations on its nuclear program with the P5+1 group (US, Russia, China, UK, France, and Germany). Iran’s new aggressive position in the region also sends a message to US and its allies, Iran’s defense minister declaring: “We are a missile power in the world.” But it most likely aims to bolster the regime’s image that it is preoccupied with the country’s security.
Pakistan’s foreign minister and prime minister cut short their visits in Africa and Switzerland to manage the crisis. Iran issued a declaration after Pakistan’s military riposte, with a reconciliatory tone, stressing that the strikes against “armed terrorists” (and not Pakistan’s “friendly and brotherly government”) will not “strain the amicable and brotherly relations of Tehran and Islamabad.” As for Pakistan, there are concerns of a military takeover of the caretaker government if the crisis deepens, in the context of highly controversial elections scheduled for February 8.
Notes from the World Economic Forum in Davos
Against the backdrop of a grim economic outlook for 2024, conflicts multiplying across the globe, societies divided between left and right, the World Economic Forum convened in Davos to discuss ways of “Building Trust.” The forum serves as a conversation point on many topics and gathers world, business and cultural leaders.
Europe and the Middle East
NATO is launching next week one of its biggest military exercises across all of the territory up to the border with Russia. UK will commit 20,000 military personnel to the NATO exercises this year, most of which will be dispatched to Eastern Europe.
Belarus submitted for approval a new military doctrine that involves the deployment across its territory of nuclear weapons, based on the Union State of Belarus and Russia Treaty. The move would be for defensive purposes, but Baltic states are already concerned that Russia is preparing to cut them off from NATO in the event of an invasion; Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania will reinforce their borders with Russia and Belarus.
UK’s primie minister Sunnak faced a backlash for ordering strikes against Yemeni Houthis without consulting the Parliament. Despite a rebellion from some of the Conservatives, Sunak emerged victorious the House of Commons which passed the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill.
Slovakia’s prime minister Fico has showed his public support for Hungary’s Orban in a joint conference and announced that Slovakia will also opposed the €50 billion financial support plan for Ukraine. Aid for Ukraine is also in danger due to the European Parliament pushing for budget deficit curbs.
The Republic Moldova is facing a surge in citizenship requests in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine: 70% applicants were Russian and 20% Ukrainian.
Germans took to the streets in protest of several AfD’s members meeting with the neo-nazis (last November in Potsdam) on a plan for mass deportations of asylum seekers. Germany passed a new bill this week that specifically facilitates easier deportation for people who are members of a criminal organization and authorizes residential searches for documentation.
Macron is poised to take back some votes from the far-right, as he promised a “stronger France” where children know the national anthem; he also plans to start a new economic bill that would propose tax cuts for middle class.
Protests erupted in Russia’s Bashkortostan after Fail Alsynov, a rights activist, was sentenced to four years in a penal colony.
Turkey has warned the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) party to stop supporting PKK terrorists in northern Iraq’s Kurdish region, a few days after it conducted targeted strikes in Iraq and Syria against Kurdish militants. Erdogan is also pondering the possibility of a new ground invasion in northern Syria against the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces.
Americas
Bernardo Arevalo, who campaigned on a anti-corruption platform, was sworn in as Guatemala’s president. Arevalo’s transition to presidency has been hindered by various officials who support the outgoing conservative president Giammatei, the latest being on the day of the inauguration, with Congress delaying the ceremony and Arevalo’s supporters threatening to storm the building.
Americans voted on Monday in the Iowa caucuses, which are only informative, sometimes the winners not ending up on the final ticket of the Republican Party. As expected, Trump won in Iowa by more than 50%, both DeSantis and Haley getting approx. 20% each. Trump had lost Iowa back in 2016, so his recent success can only set him up for more victories in the next caucuses.
Meanwhile, Senate tried to avert government shutdown on January 19, by pushing for a bill that would extend government funding to March. The stopgap bill was finally approved in Congress on Friday.
House Speaker Mike Johnson said that this is not the best time for “comprehensive” immigration reform in the US. The Biden Administration asked Texas’ Attorney General to stop the blockade on US Border Patrol and grant them access to the Mexico border. Federal agents were not allowed along the border last, the blockade also impending saving three drowning immigrants.
A prosecutor investigating last week’s storming of a TV studio in Ecuador was killed. Gang violence is also an issue in Haiti, a community in the capital’s country which houses multiple police officers having been raided by gangs.
Milei talked with David Cameron about the Falklands on the sidelines of the Davos Forum, where Argentina’s president held a lecture on libertarianism.
Africa
One week away from Boakai’s inauguration ceremony, Liberia’s lower house in the Parliament picked Jonathan Fonati Koffa from the opposition as its speaker. Boakai’s presidential term will probably clash with the opposition holding a majority in the Parliament.
Uganda hosted the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit this week, after taking the presidency from Azerbaijan. 120 leaders, including UN Secretary General Guterres, attended the conference in Kampala.
Context: NAM came to life in 1961 and it is made up of 53 countries from Africa, 39 from Asia, 26 from Latin America and the Caribbean, and two from Europe (Azerbaijan and Belarus). Arab nations insisted on putting Gaza high on the agenda for the Kampala summit; Somalia also brought the tensions with Ethiopia to the forum.
Why it matters: The conference ended with a political condemnation of Israel’s war in Gaza, calling for an immediate ceasefire. This reinforces China’s position on Gaza and quite frankly, it deepens America’s isolation as it remains a steady ally of Israel. Even the EU Parliament adopted a similar ceasefire resolution on Gaza, a bit more nuanced in the sense that Hamas needs to be dismantled first.
Rwanda claimed that soldiers from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) tried to illegally cross the border. Frictions between the two countries are due to DRC slamming Rwanda for supporting the M23 rebellion.
Somalia rejected the African Union’s proposal to mediate the dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia, at least until Ethiopia retracts the “illegal” memorandum it signed with Somaliland on using a port in the Gulf of Aden.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is departing this Sunday for a tour in Cape Verde, Ivory Coast, Nigeria and Angola. As one of the biggest African countries, Nigeria is a heavyweight especially when it comes to fighting terrorism.
Asia
North Korea is taking a more aggressive posture. News broke out that it tested a hypersonic missile last Sunday, which may be one of the most fastest and accurate missiles in the world. South Korean military confirmed that this was a much more sophisticated arsenal than the one previously tested. Authorities in Seoul are on high alert after Kim Jong Un called for North Korea’s Constitution to be update to mention South Korea as the “primary foe” and dissolved all governmental agencies in charge with the reunification. North Korea’s Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui went on a three-day trip to Russia this week, a few days after news outlets reported that Russia used North Korean artillery in Ukraine. White House's senior director for arms control Pranay Vaddi warned that Russia-North Korea cooperation in the military sphere will “drastically” increase the threats coming from Pyongyang. In response to the joint drills conducted by the US, South Korea and Japan, North Korea tested a nuclear underwater drone on Friday.
Officials from Pacific countries such Japan, Russia and the US met with Chinese authorities in Nanjing to discuss rules on unexpected encounters in the region.
The Philippines announced that it will start building artificial islands in the region (something that China has done for decades) to be ultimately used by Manila’s troops in the event of a war. China is cross with the Philippines, slamming President Marcos for congratulating Lai after his win in the presidential elections in Taiwan; Beijing said that the congratulatory message is an interference in China’s internal affairs. However, on Wednesday tensions seemed to ease off, after representatives of two countries met in Shanghai to discuss a disputed area in the South China Sea.
Nauru is the first of the 13 countries who initially recognized Taiwan to severe ties with Taipei, after Democratic Progressive Party Lai’s election last week. After receiving generous loans from Beijing, the government of Nauru announced that it is in the country’s best interests to only recognize the government of Beijing. China condemned all the governments who congratulated Lai (notably the US, Japan, German, UK) and sent sent 24 planes and five navy vessels near Taiwan on Wednesday, a force that also crossed the unofficial maritime border. An overt military action against Taiwan is not likely, with US officials on the island: Biden has dispatched former US national security adviser Stephen Hadley to Taipei in a demonstration of America’s “rock solid” commitment to the island. Hadley met with incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen Monday and hailed the election as a “shining example for the world.”
The Arakan Army, member of the Three Brotherhood Alliance fighting the military junta in Myanmar, took control over a town at the border with Bangladesh and India. This may indicate that the China-negotiated ceasefire might have collapsed.